Is Bitcoin due for a correction with 5 weeks till the halving?

Zoltan Vardai15 hours agoIs Bitcoin due for a correction with 5 weeks till the halving?While Bernstein sees a $150,000 Bitcoin price target, other analysts warn of a potential correction.12445 Total views20 Total sharesListen to article 0:00Markets NewsOwn this piece of crypto historyCollect this article as NFTJoin us on social networksBitcoin (BTC) could be gearing up for a pre-halving correction, according to historical chart patterns, despite Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of around $73,700 on March 13. Is a pre-halving Bitcoin correction imminent?

There are increasing signs of overheating, and the Bitcoin price could experience a significant drop before the halving in April. This would fall in line with the 20% pre-halving correction in 2020 and the 38% retracement before the 2016 halving, says pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital.

The analyst anticipates the possibility of a retrace that can last up to 77 days, though the drawdown might be smaller than in previous cycles. Specifically: “This year, Bitcoin has experienced a -18% pullback in January and a -14% early March. Therefore it’s possible that a pre-halving retrace, should one occur, would more likely be on the shallower side than on the deeper side.”BTC/USD, 1-week chart. Source:Rekt Capital on XBTC price underperforming previous halvings

But what if history doesn’t repeat this time? For instance, the current cycle already differs because the BTC price set a new record high for the first time before the halving even takes place.

Secondly, Bitcoin is yet to catch up to its growth trajectory from previous halving cycles, according to historical data shared by Ecoinometrics in a March 12 X post:“If Bitcoin had followed a growth trajectory similar to the past two cycles we would expect one BTC to be worth anywhere between $100,000 to $300,000 per coin.”Bitcoin halving chart. Source: Ecoinmetrics on X

Therefore, current price action still has room to run, particularly as the previous all-time high price can now act as the launchpad for more upside before the halving.

Related:Bitcoin at $71K, same as $20K last cycle — BTC price analysis

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has successfully retested the old all-time high of $69,200, which now acts as the new support line, the analyst wrote in a March 12 X post.Bitcoin price to $150,000 after halving — Bernstein

Looking ahead, according to a note to clients on Monday, wealth management firm Bernstein expects Bitcoin to break out to around $150,000 following the halving by mid-2025. Bernstein’s analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra now expect the BTC price to “break out” after the halving.

The elevated demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has made them “more convinced” about their price target, which they first published in 2023. “We estimated $10Bn inflows for 2024 and another $60Bn for 2025. In the last 40 trading days since ETF launch on Jan 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows have crossed $9.5Bn already.”

“At this run rate, Bitcoin ETFs would surpass our 2025 inflow estimates within 166 trading days for [the] rest of 2024,” the analysts added. 

Related:Grayscale files for ‘mini’ spot Bitcoin ETF

Bernstein also advised clients to invest in Bitcoin miners, as the recent underperformance “is probably the last window before halving.”

Bernstein’s price target is modest, however, compared to the expectations of Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, which has “brought forward” its long-term Bitcoin price target of over $1 million.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.# Bitcoin# Cryptocurrencies# Bitcoin Price# Markets# Stocks# Bitcoin HalvingAdd reactionAdd reaction